Iraqi power struggle comes amid crisis |
Iraq's unofficial
power-sharing agreement dictates that the President is a Kurd, the
Speaker of Parliament a Sunni and the Prime Minister a Shia. This
division of power among Iraq's three main groups has helped to prevent
Maliki's growing authoritarianism during his eight years as premier.
In 2011, a Sunni
Vice-President -- Tareq al-Hashimi -- fled to Kurdish northern Iraq
after Maliki ordered his arrest and accused him of terrorism. The Prime
Minister also suppressed Sunni protests in western Iraq, giving the
Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) the opening it needed in courting
Sunni tribes.
Now the much-maligned
constitution may have come to the rescue. It stipulates that the
President -- currently Fouad Masoum, who was elected on July 24th --
should call on the leader of the largest bloc in parliament to form a
new government within 30 days. Maliki said that was him as leader of the
State of Law bloc, but Masoum was open to other interpretations. Shia
politicians in the broader but loose National Alliance wrote to the
President Monday to say they could muster more votes than Maliki.
It was -- in essence -- a coup within the Prime Minister's own party.
Iraq under siege |
So, can a new government be formed?
Coalition-building in
Iraq since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein has never been easy, but
Nouri al-Maliki has arguably made it harder through his growing reliance
on a Shia bloc loyal to him. He has built up special forces outside the
regular army and accentuated sectarianism in Iraqi politics. In the
process, he has alienated the Kurdish and Sunni minorities.
After April's elections,
there was a sense of paralysis. It took several attempts just to get a
quorum in the new parliament so a new President could be appointed.
Maliki stayed on as Prime Minister, believing opposition to him would
crumble because no other viable candidate would emerge.
The rapid advance by ISIS
and the growing disenchantment of the Shia establishment with Maliki's
obstinate refusal to give way broke the logjam. Two events in the last
few days seem to have turned doubters into opponents.
EXCLUSIVE: The moment Iraq's Yazidis were plucked from mountain
The first was ISIS'
capture of the strategically vital Mosul dam, just as the fighters also
put pressure on Kurdish towns to the north. The dam is a critical link
in central Iraq's power and water supplies -- but its destruction would
flood a huge tract of the country.
The second (and possibly
related) event was the strongest suggestion yet from Grand Ayatollah
Ali Al-Sistani -- the undisputed leader of Iraq's Shia -- that Maliki's
time was up. Through a representative at Friday prayers last week,
Sistani warned that politicians who put their self-interest before the
national interest were committing a "grave mistake."
Sistani's position
created fissures within the State of Law coalition and Maliki's own Dawa
Party, according to Ayham Kamel of the Eurasia Group political
consultancy firm, "and provided members of the State of Law coalition
with political cover to defect to the National Alliance."
Who is Haider al-Abadi?
On the frontlines in the battle with ISIS |
Haider al-Abadi was born
in Baghdad in 1952. A long-time member of the Dawa Party (he is said to
have joined as a teenager) he was one of thousands of prominent Iraqis
-- especially Shia -- who left the country during Saddam Hussein's rule.
Al-Abadi left to study abroad after receiving a bachelor's degree in
1975, and stayed away as Hussein tightened his grip on the country. Two
of his brothers were not so lucky; they were executed in 1982 for
belonging to the Dawa Party. The following year, the regime cancelled
Haider's passport.
Al-Abadi spent many
years in Britain, where he received a doctorate in electrical
engineering at the University of Manchester. His father, who had been a
prominent Iraqi official, was accused of insufficient loyalty to the
regime and was forced to retire in 1979. He moved to Britain and lived
there until his death.
After Hussein was
ousted, al-Abadi returned to Iraq in 2003 and became Communications
Minister in the interim government, where his language skills and
international contacts proved valuable. According to his biography,
al-Abadi was put in charge of ridding the northern Iraqi city of Tal
Afar of al Qaeda in 2005, and successfully brought tribes together in
doing so. It may prove to have been useful experience; Tal Afar is now
under the control of ISIS.
In interviews in recent
weeks he has stressed the need for unity and compromise in the face of a
common enemy, saying all groups had been weakened in the face of the
militant threat. He has argued fervently against the division of Iraq
and said he is open to help from Iran (where many Dawa Party members
lived in exile.)
Despite the growing odds
against him, Nouri al-Maliki is not going quietly. He has deployed
militia loyal to him around and inside the Green Zone -- the center of
federal power in Iraq -- and says he will challenge the President's move
in court over a "grave constitutional breach."
"Maliki will pressure
the constitutional court to issue a clearer ruling that prevents Abadi
from assuming power," says Kamel of the Eurasia Group.
Maliki also remains head
of the armed forces and intelligence services, and commands the Defense
and Interior ministries. Kamel suggests "Maliki could also approve a
new military offensive against ISIS and claim that a leadership change
would jeopardize the security environment."
But the army has made it clear that its loyalty is to the state, not the Commander-in-Chief. Senior commanders have been alienated by Maliki's formation of militia and special brigades that have taken resources and power from the military, as well as political patronage in senior appointments. Loyalty was prized above ability
There is the danger that
die-hard loyalists to Maliki could put up a fight, drawing the security
forces into a battle for control of Baghdad just as they face ISIS not
far from the capital. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry alluded to this
risk Monday, saying: "The government formation process is critical in
terms of sustaining stability and calm in Iraq and our hope is that Mr.
Maliki will not stir those waters."
The Institute for the Study of War notes
that the powerful Iranian-backed Shia militia, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, has
already abandoned Maliki. And it adds that "Iranian-directed militia
activities will likely neutralize other elements of the ISF (Iraqi
Security Forces) that are loyal to Maliki." Even so, groups like the
Badr Brigades -- if they decide to support Maliki -- have the potential
to stir trouble.
Some observers suggest
Maliki be given a ceremonial position -- perhaps a Vice-Presidency -- to
provide him with a dignified exit. But for now he appears to have been
outmaneuvered by the same tactics he used so effectively in the past. As
Joel Wing writes in his Musings on Iraq blog,
"Rather than finding the chinks in his opponents' armor like he did in
2010, it was [his own] State of Law who ended up breaking apart. Now
he's left to verbal threats, claims of illegality, and intimidating
maneuvers."
"With all the support
Abadi is garnering, it will all be over when he presents his ruling
coalition for approval to parliament in the next 30 days," writes Wing.
What do the Kurds and Sunnis think?
U.S. airstrikes help Kurds recapture town |
So far much of the
political drama has played out among the Shia parties in Baghdad. Sunni
and Kurdish groups are preoccupied with more pressing problems in the
face of the ISIS threat, and are waiting to see how al-Abadi follows
through on his conciliatory language.
The Dawa Party's Shia
Islamist complexion may make Sunnis and Kurds wary of al-Abadi. After
all, until recent weeks he was a close aide of Maliki, and therefore --
in the eyes of many Sunnis and Kurds -- guilty by association with an
increasingly sectarian Shia program.
The Dawa Party also
favors a strong central government, and the Kurds may be concerned that
their gains amid the chaos of the last few months -- especially in
taking control of Kirkuk and its oil fields -- will be challenged.
Their veteran leader,
Massoud Barzani, has said that recent events have forever changed the
nature of Iraq -- and suggested a referendum on Kurdish independence may
be held.
U.S. Vice President Joe
Biden urged Barzani "to work closely with Dr. Abadi as he works to build
a diverse, inclusive government," according to a statement from the
White House. But the Kurds will want to see concessions on what they
would regard as a fairer division of Iraqi oil revenues, as well as more
generous supplies of weaponry from Baghdad with which to fight ISIS.
There is also the issue of the Kurds' unilateral sale of oil, which has been vociferously opposed by the government in Baghdad.
What's the view of the international community?
There is rare unanimity
that al-Abadi, while not exactly a consensus figure, has to be given a
chance to "reach across the aisle" in the face of the existential threat
posed by ISIS, which now controls swathes of north and western Iraq.
Obama has already
reached out to al-Abadi to urge him to form a cabinet representative of
Iraq's ethnic and religious communities. And al-Abadi has made the right
noises in response. The White House said he had "expressed his intent
to move expeditiously to form a broad-based, inclusive government" in a
phone call with the President.
The language out of
Tehran has been more restrained, but equally pointed. Ali Shamkhani, a
member of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said on Tuesday his
country backed the legal procedure taken in the nomination of the Prime
Minister. Saudi Arabia -- which has long loathed Maliki -- also joined
the chorus, congratulating President Masoum on nominating al-Abadi.
The question is whether,
if and when Maliki is forced from office, the Obama administration will
step up its participation in the campaign against ISIS. John Kerry has
already (not surprisingly) ruled out ground troops. But he said Tuesday:
"What we are really looking for is a way to support Iraq, support their
forces whether it's training, equipment of one sort or another that can
help them stand on their own two feet."
To Max Boot at the Council on Foreign Relations,
the question is: "Will we stick to a minimalist containment strategy
designed to prevent ISIS from taking Erbil and murdering the Yazidis? Or
will we implement a much more ambitious strategy to enable the defeat
of ISIS?"
If the latter, the U.S.
may need to get the new government's assent for arming Kurdish Peshmerga
forces directly, so ISIS can be challenged on two fronts.
U.S. airstrikes appear
to have stemmed ISIS' momentum in the Sinjar area near the Syrian border
and east of Mosul for now, and better coordination between the Iraqi
army and Kurdish forces will further pressurize ISIS. But the militants
are resilient, well-organized and have seized weaponry such as armored
personnel carriers and tanks from Iraqi armories.
Success on the
battlefield -- long awaited but so far unrealized -- may be al-Abadi's
best ally as he tries to stitch together a majority in parliament.
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